Coca prices fall over ten per cent so far in 2026
The decline follows cocoa’s steepest annual drop on record in 2025, when prices tumbled 48.1%. Early concerns about drought in West Africa had initially pushed prices higher, but later forecasts of stronger harvests weighed heavily on the market, leaving cocoa at $6,056 per ton at the end of last year.
Additional pressure came from warnings by global chocolate and cocoa producers of weaker sales and the White House’s announcement of plans to remove cocoa tariffs. These factors contributed to a 10.3% decline in early January. Favorable rainfall across major West African producing regions, particularly in Ivory Coast and Ghana, is expected to boost output during February and March, raising optimism among farmers about crop quality.
Despite the expected rise in production, demand is projected to remain subdued. Analysts cite unusual rainfall patterns in Ivory Coast and weak European cocoa processing activity as indicators of limited short-term demand.
Oran van Dort, a commodity analyst, noted that the sharp drop in prices on January 9 was influenced more by technical market factors than fundamental changes, with exporters and speculators selling to capitalize on earlier gains. He added that rising market volatility, declining liquidity, and high margin requirements have amplified price swings.
Looking ahead, cocoa prices are expected to remain on a downward trajectory due to anticipated surpluses, although short-term rebounds remain possible given ongoing market volatility.
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